Trump odds suggest a tough path to ending the Ukraine war in 90 days. Despite bold claims, complexities, diplomacy, and opposition may slow his progress.
Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, one of his boldest campaign promises is now under scrutiny: his claim that he can end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours.” As his administration prepares to take office, the feasibility of this promise is being questioned by experts, given the complexities of the conflict and the challenges of international diplomacy.
The Complexity of the Ukraine Conflict
The war in Ukraine, which began in 2022, is deeply entrenched. Resolving it quickly would require overcoming substantial hurdles, including ongoing hostilities and entrenched positions from both Ukraine and Russia. Escalations in Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities underscore the volatility of the situation, complicating any efforts for a swift peace.
Additionally, peace negotiations would necessitate collaboration among multiple international actors, including Russia, Ukraine, and European allies. Achieving consensus among these stakeholders is a time-consuming process. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while expressing cautious optimism about Trump’s leadership, has been clear that Ukraine would not agree to any settlement that compromises its territorial sovereignty.
Challenges Within the Trump Administration
Trump’s ability to deliver on his promise may also be hindered by internal dynamics within his administration. Key cabinet members, such as Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, hold hawkish views, potentially clashing with efforts to de-escalate quickly. Such disagreements could slow down the implementation of Trump’s strategy.
Congress also poses a significant obstacle. Any drastic policy shifts, such as cutting military aid to Ukraine, are likely to encounter bipartisan resistance. This reflects the enduring support among lawmakers for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression.
Historical Precedents
Trump’s past approach to major policy changes suggests that immediate action may not align with reality. For instance, his changes to the Iran nuclear deal took 16 months to fully implement. Similarly, even if Trump initiates diplomatic efforts to end the war, resolving the conflict entirely within 90 days seems highly improbable.
Betting on Trump’s Chances
The Polymarket betting platform has highlighted public skepticism regarding Trump’s claims. Prior to his election, odds on Polymarket indicated a 40-56% probability of Trump making significant moves to end the war within the first 90 days of his presidency. This near-even split reflected a mix of skepticism and cautious optimism.
While some supporters point to Trump’s unconventional diplomatic style and past engagement with authoritarian leaders, others see his 24-hour claim as campaign rhetoric rather than a concrete plan. Betting markets, while insightful, are ultimately influenced by sentiment rather than geopolitical realities.
Trump Odds: Ending War in Ukraine
Now that Trump is set to take office, his administration faces the daunting task of addressing the war in Ukraine. Despite his bold campaign promises, the entrenched nature of the conflict, international diplomatic challenges, internal administration dynamics, and bipartisan opposition suggest that achieving peace within 90 days will be extremely challenging. Although Trump may take initial steps to shift U.S. policy, fully resolving the conflict in such a short timeframe appears unlikely, underscoring the gap between campaign pledges and the realities of global politics.
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