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Trump odds for pardons in his first 100 days show high chances for January 6 protestors (79%) and Ross Ulbricht (68%), while Trump himself has just 12%.

As Donald Trump eyes his return to the presidency, speculation grows over who might receive pardons in his first 100 days back in office. From January 6 Capitol riot participants to high-profile political allies, Trump has hinted at using his broad pardon power once again. Prediction markets have weighed in on some of the key figures, offering insight into the likelihood of pardons and their potential political ramifications.

January 6 Participants: A High Priority

Trump has consistently labeled individuals involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot as “political prisoners” and pledged to prioritize their pardons. Over 1,000 participants have faced charges, with around 200 convictions to date. According to the prediction market Polymarket, a January 6 protester has a 79% chance of receiving a pardon, which translates to betting odds of -316. This high likelihood reflects Trump’s public commitment to addressing what he perceives as injustice against these individuals.

Pardons for these participants may include both non-violent offenders and those convicted of more serious crimes, such as assaulting law enforcement officers. However, such pardons are likely to face intense public scrutiny and potential legal challenges, especially given the broader political implications of excusing actions tied to the attack on the Capitol.

Ross Ulbricht: The Silk Road Founder

Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road dark web marketplace, has emerged as a prominent potential recipient of a Trump pardon. Polymarket data gives Ulbricht a 68% chance of being pardoned, equating to odds of -213. Trump has been vocal about his interest in Ulbricht’s case, even pledging to “save” him in a social media post in October 2024.

Ulbricht, who is serving a double life sentence plus 40 years, has become a cause célèbre for those advocating for criminal justice reform, particularly concerning non-violent offenders in the digital space. If granted, his pardon would likely spark significant debate about the line between reform and leniency for controversial figures.

Trump Pardoning Himself? Unlikely But Not Impossible

One of the most provocative scenarios involves Trump granting himself a pardon, a legal gray area that has never been tested. Polymarket assigns a 12% chance to this possibility, with odds of +733. While the probability is low, the stakes are monumental. Should Trump attempt a self-pardon, it would set a historic precedent and likely trigger constitutional debates and court challenges.

Other Speculated Pardons

Beyond these high-profile cases, Trump may consider pardoning political allies, as he did during his first term. Figures like Steve Bannon hold a 22% chance of receiving a pardon, according to prediction markets. Additionally, Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, has a 16% chance of pardon. Speculation also includes celebrity figures such as Diddy and Young Thug, though their odds remain low.

Trump Odds on pardons in first 100 days

Trump’s potential use of pardon power could reignite debates over justice and accountability. With a January 6 protestor leading the odds at 79%, Ross Ulbricht at 68%, and even Trump himself at 12%, the decisions in his first 100 days could define his approach to a second term while sparking legal and political controversy.