Uruguay Presidential Election Odds: Yamandú Orsi, the Broad Front candidate, is an 81% favorite on Polymarket, poised to reclaim power in the November 24 runoff.
Uruguay is set for a pivotal runoff election on November 24, as the country decides between two starkly different candidates: Yamandú Orsi of the center-left Broad Front (Frente Amplio) and Álvaro Delgado of the center-right National Party. The outcome will shape the nation’s trajectory on issues like economic policy, public safety, and social reform.
The Candidates: Orsi vs. Delgado
Yamandú Orsi, 57, a former history teacher and mayor, leads the charge for the Broad Front, which seeks a return to power after its 15-year rule from 2005 to 2020. Known for progressive achievements like legalizing same-sex marriage, cannabis, and achieving 98% renewable energy, the Broad Front has positioned itself as a champion of inclusive policies.
In contrast, Álvaro Delgado, 55, is a seasoned politician and former chief of staff to the current president, representing the center-right National Party, which prioritizes pro-business policies and economic growth. Delgado hopes to extend his party’s influence by consolidating support from conservative factions.
The first round of voting on October 27 gave Orsi a significant lead, with 43.9% of the vote to Delgado’s 26.8%. However, Delgado has gained momentum with endorsements from other conservative parties, potentially adding 20% of the vote share to his base.
Yamandú Orsi’s Dominance in Betting Markets
While polls indicate a competitive race, betting platforms heavily favor Orsi. On Polymarket, Orsi is an 81% favorite to win, translating to implied odds of -426. This reflects confidence in his ability to maintain his lead through coalition-building and turnout efforts.
Such odds underscore Orsi’s dominance, as he has outperformed Delgado in every key metric so far. However, the National Party’s ability to rally its conservative base and attract undecided voters may still close the gap, keeping the election outcome uncertain.
Uruguay’s Political Stability
Uruguay stands out in Latin America for its democratic stability and strong centrist tendencies. Both major parties, despite ideological differences, converge on centrist policies, ensuring a focus on consensus over conflict. This has helped Uruguay maintain a reputation for political civility and economic stability, even during regional turbulence.
The Broad Front is celebrated for its social and environmental reforms, while the National Party emphasizes steady economic growth and pro-business policies. The 2024 election continues this tradition of policy-driven campaigns, avoiding the divisive rhetoric seen in many neighboring countries.
Key Election Issues
Voters are prioritizing crime, child poverty, and pension reform, making these central to both campaigns. Orsi has promised a shift back to left-leaning economic policies, while Delgado focuses on maintaining the current administration’s pro-business direction.
The first-round turnout of 89.6% highlights Uruguayans’ strong engagement, and both candidates will now aim to mobilize their bases and court undecided voters, who make up roughly 10% of the electorate.
Uruguay Presidential Election Odds
With Orsi leading in polls and betting odds, the Broad Front may return to power. Yet Delgado’s growing coalition and a focus on key voter concerns suggest a tightly contested runoff. The November 24 vote will determine whether Uruguay continues its progressive legacy or opts for a conservative future.
ElectionOdds.ca 