New York City Mayor odds reveal a heated race as Kathryn Garcia and Jumaane Williams lead at +350, followed by Letitia James at +450.
The 2025 New York City mayoral race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, beset by a federal corruption indictment and plummeting approval ratings, faces a difficult path to re-election.
With only 16% of likely voters supporting him, according to recent polls, dissatisfaction with his leadership has created a wide-open field of challengers eager to seize the moment.
A Crowded Field of Challengers
Several high-profile figures have declared their candidacy for the Democratic primary scheduled for June 2025. Among them is Scott Stringer, the former city comptroller, who is making another bid for the mayoralty despite controversies in his past.
Brad Lander, the current city comptroller, has positioned himself as a champion of progressive policies, including affordable housing and social equity.
State senators Jessica Ramos and Zellnor Myrie are also in the race. Ramos has strong ties to labor unions and focuses on affordability and workers’ rights, while Myrie is leveraging his record in public service to gain traction.
Another notable entrant is Zohran Mamdani, a progressive assemblymember from Queens who is running on a democratic socialist platform.
Adding intrigue to the race is speculation about other potential candidates. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, seeking a political comeback, has seen his popularity rebound in some quarters.
New York Attorney General Letitia James is also rumored to be weighing her options, particularly if Adams resigns or is removed from office, which could trigger a special election.
Current Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, known for his progressive stance and vocal criticism of Adams’s policies, is another likely contender if such a scenario unfolds.
Betting Favorites: Garcia and Williams Lead the Pack
Among the crowded field, Kathryn Garcia and Jumaane Williams have emerged as co-favorites to become the next mayor of New York City. Both have odds of +350, reflecting an implied probability of 22.2%.
Garcia, the former commissioner of the Department of Sanitation, came within 0.8 percentage points of defeating Adams in the 2021 Democratic primary. With her extensive experience in managing city services, she is running as a pragmatic candidate focused on affordable housing and community safety.
Williams, currently serving as Public Advocate, is widely respected for his progressive policies and his strong track record of advocating for public safety reforms and community empowerment. If Adams were to step down, Williams could gain a significant advantage by serving as acting mayor ahead of the election.
Letitia James follows closely behind as the second favorite, with odds of +450 and an implied probability of 18.2%. Known for her leadership as New York Attorney General, James’s potential candidacy is seen as a wildcard that could reshape the dynamics of the race.
New York City Mayor Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kathryn Garcia | +350 | 22.2% |
| Jumaane Williams | +350 | 22.2% |
| Letitia James | +450 | 18.2% |
As Eric Adams struggles to regain public trust, the Democratic primary field is quickly growing more competitive. Whether Adams can weather the storm of his legal troubles or whether New Yorkers will turn to a new leader remains to be seen. With high-profile candidates and shifting political dynamics, the 2025 mayoral race promises to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
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