Sources suggest Trudeau resigns early this week, marking a turning point in Canadian politics and triggering a heated Liberal leadership race and shifting election odds.
Justin Trudeau is expected to announce his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada on Monday, January 6, 2025, according to reports from The Globe and Mail.
With his nine-year tenure as Prime Minister coming to an end, the race for the next Liberal leader is gaining momentum.
This leadership transition, combined with a strong position for the opposition Conservatives, has significant implications for the upcoming federal election.
Liberal Leadership Race: Who Will Lead the Party Next?
The Liberal Party faces a challenging leadership contest. Early polling highlights Mark Carney as the frontrunner, but other prominent figures like Chrystia Freeland and Mélanie Joly could also play pivotal roles.
Interestingly, a large portion of Canadians remain skeptical of the current field, with “none of the above” ranking as the top preference in recent surveys.
| Candidate | Odds | Support (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney | -105 | 18% |
| Chrystia Freeland | +333 | 11% |
| Mélanie Joly | +800 | N/A |
| Dominic LeBlanc | +1000 | N/A |
| “None of the Above” | N/A | 25% |
Carney’s experience as the former Governor of the Bank of Canada makes him a strong contender, while Freeland’s high-profile roles keep her in the spotlight.
An interim leader will likely guide the party until a permanent leader is chosen, a process expected to take several months.
Next Federal Election: Conservative Dominance?
Recent polling and betting odds suggest that the upcoming federal election could spell trouble for the Liberals. The Conservatives are leading national polls and are the clear favorites in betting markets.
With the Liberals polling at historic lows, the NDP and Bloc Québécois are well-positioned to capitalize on their weaknesses.
| Party | Odds | Support (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | -2000 | 43-45% |
| Liberal Party | +500 to +800 | 20-25% |
| New Democratic Party | +2500 to +4000 | 18-20% |
| Bloc Québécois | +5000 to +8000 | 34% in Quebec |
| Green Party | +20000 to +50000 | N/A |
| People’s Party of Canada | +20000 to +75000 | N/A |
The Conservatives dominate in most regions, leading by 20+ points in key provinces like Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois holds a commanding lead.
Betting odds reflect a 95% chance of a Conservative victory, leaving the Liberals with little time to recover.
What’s at Stake?
The Liberal leadership race and the next federal election will significantly shape Canada’s political future. The new Liberal leader will need to rebuild the party, reconnect with voters, and close the growing gap in public support.
Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are poised to capitalize on Liberal missteps and secure a decisive electoral win.
With Trudeau’s resignation imminent, the stakes are high for the Liberal Party as it prepares for a crucial leadership transition and a challenging election campaign.
ElectionOdds.ca 