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The latest Canada election odds 2025 favor Mark Carney’s Liberals, projecting a minority government outcome ahead of the April 28 federal election.

As Canada heads toward its pivotal federal election on April 28, 2025, betting markets have started to solidify expectations about which party will form the next government. Currently, sportsbooks clearly favor the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney, predicting the most likely outcome will be a Liberal minority government.

According to recent betting lines, the Liberal Party is listed as the favorite to form a minority government at odds of -175, suggesting a strong implied probability of approximately 63.6%. Conversely, a Liberal majority outcome is viewed as significantly less likely, with odds currently set at +600, translating to an implied probability of just 14.3%.

On the other side of the aisle, the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre trails behind in terms of likelihood, with odds of +400 (implied probability of 20%) for forming a minority government and +550 (implied probability of 15.4%) for securing a majority. Despite these comparatively longer odds, the Conservatives remain a competitive force, with recent polling showing them closely trailing the Liberals.

Government After Next Election Odds

Here’s the latest betting odds for which party will form government after the next Canada federal election.

Potential Outcome	Betting Odds	Implied Probability
Liberal Minority Government	-175	63.6%
Liberal Majority Government	+600	14.3%
Conservative Minority Government	+400	20.0%
Conservative Majority Government	+550	15.4%

(Note: Odds and implied probabilities accurate as of April 5, 2025.)

These betting odds reflect more than just current public sentiment; they factor in recent significant political developments.

Mark Carney’s sudden rise to the role of Prime Minister and Liberal leader following Justin Trudeau’s resignation significantly boosted Liberal fortunes in national polls.

Moreover, the recent imposition of substantial trade tariffs on Canadian automobiles by U.S. President Donald Trump has heightened nationalist sentiment across Canada, driving voters toward the Liberals in a show of economic patriotism.

Recent polls underline this market sentiment, with the Liberals notably widening their lead in voter intention. An Angus Reid Institute poll from March 31 revealed Liberals at 46%, compared to Conservatives at 38%.

Likewise, Ipsos polling data confirmed this shift, marking the Liberals’ remarkable recovery from a deficit to a narrow lead in only six weeks (Ipsos, February 2025).

As Canadians approach the ballot box later this month, these odds will continue to fluctuate, providing a real-time gauge of public expectation and market perception.