The 2025 Canadian federal election is shaping up to be one of the most remarkable political turnarounds in modern history.
After entering the year as heavy underdogs, the Liberal Party — now led by Mark Carney — has surged into overwhelming favoritism nationwide. Across every province, and in nearly every metric from seat count to popular vote, the Liberals have reversed what once seemed like inevitable Conservative momentum.
This breakdown captures the latest odds, regional battles, and historic swings that define an election where Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are on the brink of an unprecedented collapse.
National Overview
- Liberal Party: Favored to win the election with odds of -600, indicating an 85.7% implied probability.
- Conservative Party: Underdogs at +290 odds (25.6% implied probability).
- Any Other Party: Long shots at +7500 odds (1.32% implied probability).
The Liberals are also favored to win the popular vote at -175 odds, while the Conservatives are at +125.
📍 Province-by-Province Breakdown
🏙️ Ontario (122 seats)
- Liberal Party: Strong performance with a 6-point lead over Conservatives.
- Conservative Party: Trailing, with diminished prospects compared to earlier in the year.
🍁 Quebec (78 seats)
- Liberal Party: Maintaining a strong lead, aided by national unity sentiments in response to external threats.
- Bloc Québécois: Facing challenges in gaining ground in traditional strongholds.
🌲 British Columbia (42 seats)
- Liberal Party: Favored to win the most seats at -125 odds.
- Conservative Party: Close contenders at +100 odds.
🛢️ Alberta (34 seats)
- Conservative Party: Projected to dominate, consistent with historical trends.
- Liberal Party: Limited prospects, with focus on maintaining existing seats.
🌾 Saskatchewan (14 seats)
- Conservative Party: Expected to perform strongly, reflecting regional support.
- Liberal Party: Challenged in gaining significant traction.
🌾 Manitoba (14 seats)
- Liberal Party: Competitive in urban areas.
- Conservative Party: Strong in rural regions.
🦞 Atlantic Canada (32 seats)
- Liberal Party: Historically strong, expected to maintain majority of seats.
- Conservative Party: Limited gains anticipated.
❄️ Territories (3 seats)
- Liberal Party: Favored in Yukon and Northwest Territories.
- Conservative Party: Competitive in Nunavut.
📉 Historical Odds Shift
In January 2025, the Conservatives were heavily favored with odds of -2000 (95.2% implied probability). Following Trudeau’s resignation and Carney’s leadership, the Liberals surged from +900 underdogs to -600 favorites.
This dramatic shift is unprecedented in Canadian political betting history, highlighting the volatility and impact of leadership changes and external factors on electoral prospects.
🗳️ Seat Count Over/Unders
Liberal Party
- 160-179 seats: Favored at -160 odds.
- 180-199 seats: +300 odds.
- 200-210 seats: +850 odds.
- 211 or more seats: +900 odds.
Conservative Party
- 120-139 seats: Favored at -105 odds.
- 140-159 seats: +230 odds.
- 160-179 seats: +380 odds.
- 180-199 seats: +950 odds.
📊 Popular Vote Props
- Liberal Party: Favored to win the popular vote at -175 odds.
- Conservative Party: +125 odds.
📌 Quebec Focus
The Bloc Québécois is projected to win over 20.5 seats at -130 odds, with under 20.5 at +115. However, the Liberals’ strong national unity messaging has resonated in Quebec, potentially limiting the Bloc’s gains.
With just months until Canadians head to the polls, the betting markets leave little doubt: the 2025 election has already rewritten political expectations.
While Conservatives may cling to strongholds in Alberta and parts of rural Canada, their national project has unraveled under the weight of internal contradictions, toxic associations, and strategic missteps.
Mark Carney’s Liberals are poised not only to win — but to do so in a manner that will be studied as one of the most historic comebacks in Canadian electoral history.
ElectionOdds.ca 
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