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While pundits claimed the 2025 Canada election was too close to call, betting markets quietly predicted a Liberal minority long before votes were counted.

On election night, while pundits hedged and party loyalists clung to hope, one indicator quietly beat them all to the punch: the betting markets. As the results trickled in across Canada, it became clear that the story wasn’t just unfolding in real time—it had already been written in the odds.

In the weeks leading up to the vote, the momentum swung dramatically. What had once looked like a sure Conservative lead—back when they were listed as -2000 favorites to win the popular vote—collapsed in spectacular fashion.

As of election day, the implied probability of a Conservative win in the popular vote had shrunk to just over 40%.

The Liberals, bolstered by Mark Carney’s technocratic appeal and the aftermath of Justin Trudeau’s resignation, surged ahead in both polling and markets.

Some of the savviest observers had already picked up on this. While the public narrative fixated on a supposed tight race, bettors noticed the shifting lines: Liberals moved to -250 to win the most seats, -110 for a minority government, and -130 to win the popular vote. These odds weren’t just random numbers—they reflected real-time market sentiment based on political signals, regional polling trends, and insider knowledge.

Markets don’t guarantee outcomes, but they often indicate something the press misses: collective probability judgments made with real money. In this case, they sniffed out the truth before any major outlet did. The moment Bet365 removed the odds board mid-evening, seasoned bettors knew what it meant: the result was essentially locked in. The game was over. The Liberals were going to win the most seats—and they did.

Meanwhile, Conservative supporters projected the confidence of a fanbase in denial. Much like Trump supporters in 2020, they bet heavily based on vibes and wishful thinking. Many believed their momentum in Western Canada would carry them nationwide. But the math didn’t work: they remained regionally isolated, unable to break through in key battlegrounds like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Betting markets punished them accordingly.

For those who were watching closely, the volatility of the odds told the deeper story. This wasn’t just a poll-driven swing; it was a structural collapse of a Conservative campaign that had failed to build a national coalition. While media coverage lagged behind, trying to parse debate performances or last-minute controversies, the betting markets adjusted in real time, constantly recalibrating based on new data.

In the end, the final numbers merely confirmed what the betting lines had already forecast: a Liberal minority, Conservative fragmentation, and a political landscape shaped less by party loyalty than by regional dynamics and progressive vote-splitting.

If you want to know what’s really happening in Canadian election, or any election, for that matter—don’t just follow the polls. Follow the money.