Zohran Mamdani shocked the NYC political world by winning the Democratic mayoral primary, surging from long-shot status to frontrunner in betting markets.
New York City mayoral odds saw a stunning reversal as Zohran Mamdani surged from long-shot status to frontrunner—and ultimately won the Democratic primary outright.
His final-round victory over former Governor Andrew Cuomo caps one of the most remarkable electoral turnarounds in recent NYC political history.
With ranked-choice voting tallied late Tuesday, Mamdani captured 56.2% of the final-round vote, defeating Cuomo by more than 12 percentage points.
The Assemblymember from Queens, who ran on a democratic socialist platform, built a grassroots movement that outpaced better-funded and more establishment-backed rivals.
From Underdog to Upset
When Mamdani entered the race in early 2024, betting markets gave him little chance. In May, Polymarket listed his odds at +1400 (6.7% implied probability), far behind early betting favorites Kathryn Garcia, Jumaane Williams, and Letitia James.
But as the race tightened in early June, Mamdani’s momentum became impossible to ignore. Backed by a surge of small-dollar donations, endorsements from progressive heavyweights, and an energized field operation in outer-borough neighborhoods, Mamdani’s odds improved steadily.
By the week of the primary, Kalshi bettors had him narrowly favored at -120 (implied probability: 54.5%). By the time polls closed on June 24, Mamdani had become the consensus frontrunner across prediction markets.
Ranked-Choice Results
The June 24 Democratic primary used New York’s ranked-choice system, allowing voters to rank up to five candidates. Mamdani took a commanding lead in the first round and expanded it through the elimination process.
Primary Results (Final Round)
- Zohran Mamdani: 565,639 votes (56.21%)
- Andrew Cuomo: 440,655 votes (43.79%)
- Brad Lander and others: eliminated in earlier rounds
Cuomo performed strongly in Manhattan and parts of Staten Island but failed to overcome Mamdani’s working-class coalition in Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. Brad Lander, initially polling in double digits, was eliminated after the second round of counting.
Betting Favorites Shift Over Time
Early odds had Kathryn Garcia and Jumaane Williams as co-favorites at +350 (22.2%), with Letitia James close behind at +450. But none of the three cracked the top two in the final results.
Cuomo’s odds surged in late May to as high as -200 (66.7%) after a series of high-profile endorsements and a multi-million dollar media campaign. But Mamdani’s rise caught markets off guard—until it didn’t.
By mid-June, bettors who bought Mamdani early were holding some of the most profitable political tickets of the year.
New York City Mayor Odds – Then and Now
| Candidate | May 2024 Odds | June 23, 2025 Odds | Final Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | +1400 (6.7%) | -120 (54.5%) | Winner |
| Andrew Cuomo | +600 (14.3%) | +110 (47.6%) | Runner-Up (43.8%) |
| Kathryn Garcia | +350 (22.2%) | +1200 (7.7%) | Eliminated Early |
| Jumaane Williams | +350 (22.2%) | +950 (9.5%) | Eliminated Early |
| Letitia James | +450 (18.2%) | N/A (Did not run) | Declined to enter |
A New Political Landscape
Zohran Mamdani’s victory has reshaped New York’s political terrain. His campaign emphasized housing justice, public transit access, demilitarizing the NYPD, and tackling climate inequality—offering a clear contrast to both Adams’s scandal-plagued administration and Cuomo’s centrist comeback narrative.
With Mamdani now the presumptive favorite in November’s general election in heavily Democratic New York, bettors are already turning their attention to the general mayoral odds—and what a Mamdani administration could mean for the city’s future.
As betting markets learned in real time, grassroots momentum can upend the best-laid odds.
ElectionOdds.ca 
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