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Doug Ford wins a historic third consecutive majority in the 2025 Ontario election, exceeding expectations and solidifying his leadership in the province.

Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative Party have secured a third consecutive majority government in the 2025 Ontario election, a historic feat that exceeded both polling and betting market expectations. Ford’s commanding victory reinforces his dominance in Ontario politics and solidifies the Progressive Conservatives’ hold on power for another term.

Pre-Election Polling and Early Expectations

Heading into the election, polling consistently favored the PCs, with multiple surveys showing Ford’s party well ahead of their rivals. A final poll conducted by Abacus Data on February 24-25 projected the Progressive Conservatives were on track for a comfortable majority. Another poll, conducted by Postmedia-Leger just days before voting day, placed the PCs at 47% support, far ahead of the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 17%.

Even on election day, last-minute polling showed Ford maintaining a 20-point lead over Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, with the NDP trailing in a distant third. These numbers all pointed to a clear PC victory, but the final results still managed to surpass the already favorable outlook.

Betting Markets Reflected Confidence in Ford

The betting odds also overwhelmingly favored Doug Ford and the PCs. FanDuel listed the Progressive Conservatives at -2400 to win the election, meaning bettors would have had to wager $2400 to win just $100 if Ford’s party came out on top. In comparison, the Liberals were listed at +1500 and the NDP at +3100, showing how unlikely oddsmakers considered an upset.

Other sportsbooks, such as Bet99, offered similar odds, with the PCs at -1400 in the final days leading up to the vote. However, as the campaign drew to a close, there were some signs of softening support for the PCs, with the Liberals slightly narrowing the odds gap. Still, the Tories remained the overwhelming favorites from start to finish.

A Result That Exceeded Expectations

Despite strong polling numbers and heavy betting support, Doug Ford and the PCs still managed to exceed expectations with their 2025 victory. Not only did they secure a third consecutive majority government, but they may have even expanded their seat count, further strengthening their hold on Queen’s Park.

This achievement is particularly historic, as no Ontario party has won three consecutive majorities since 1959. Ford’s campaign message, which placed a strong emphasis on standing up to U.S. tariff threats and promoting economic resilience, appears to have resonated with voters across the province.

The final seat count was still being confirmed at the time of reporting, but early analysis suggested the PCs comfortably cruised to victory, winning by an even wider margin than many pollsters and analysts predicted.

Ultimately, Ford’s win reinforced his strong position in Ontario politics, securing a place in history with a third straight majority while defying any late signs of Liberal momentum. The combined story from polling, betting odds, and the actual results shows a PC campaign that consistently outperformed expectations, further cementing Ford’s reputation as a dominant and resilient political force in the province.